A second-generation model of currency crises is combined with a standard banking model. In a pegged exchange rate regime, after funds have been committed to the banks, news arrives about the quality of the banks' assets and about the exchange rate fundamentals. A run on the banks may cause a...

A second-generation model of currency crises is combined with a standard banking model. In a pegged exchange rate regime, after funds have been committed to the banks, news arrives about the quality of the banks' assets and about the exchange rate fundamentals. A run on the banks may cause a...

In a model where sunspot panics and information-based bank runs co-exist, we studythe importance of the suspension of deposit convertibility rule...

Research in both economics and psychology suggests that, when agents predict the next value of a random series, they frequently exhibit two types of biases, which are called the gambler's fallacy (GF) and the hot hand fallacy (HHF). The gambler's fallacy is to expect a negative correlation in a...

We hypothesise that, given the typically uneven distribution of ethnic groups within acountry, ethnic diversity leads to greater local polarization and more frequent, butsmaller, conflicts that involve only some ethnic groups. These conflicts can beoverlooked if the number of fatalities is...