In this paper, I present a multi-sectoral DSGE-model with housing, real rigidities and variable capital utilization that generates aggregate and sectoral co-movements due to sector specific shocks. Furthermore, the model accounts for two puzzles: First, residential investment correlates...

We propose a theoretical framework to reconcile episodes of V-shaped and L-shaped recovery, encompassing the behaviour of the U.S. economy before and after the Great Recession. In a DSGE model with endogenous growth, negative demand shocks destroy productive capacity, moving GDP to a lower...

We document that the nature of business cycles evolves over the process of development and structural change. In countries with large declining agricultural sectors, aggregate employment is uncorrelated with GDP.During booms, employment in agriculture declines while labor productivity increases...

What is the output gap? There are many definitions in the economics literature, all of which have a long history. I discuss three alternatives: the deviation of output from its long-run stochastic trend (i.e., the "Beveridge-Nelson cycle"); the deviation of output from the level consistent with...

This study examines whether and how important it is to adjust output gap frameworks during the COVID-19 pandemic and similar unprecedentedly large-scale episodes. Our proposed modelling framework comprises a Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregresion with an identification setup based on a...

This article investigates a two-period lived OLG model with financial intermediation as a vehicle to share risk. Risk-averse agents subject to idiosyncratic income shocks prefer financial intermediation that implements the efficient allocation to capital markets. It is shown that the resulting...

The stability of cyclical growth within the context of a model in Matsuyama (1999) is examined. It is shown that but for an extreme situation, the two-cycles are unique and a range of parameter values which imply the stability of such cyclical growth is derived. The growth enhancing property of...

This article uses dynamic equilibrium input-output models to evaluate the contribution of the construction sector to the Great Recession and the expansion preceeding it. Through production interlinkages and demand complementarities, shifts in housing demand can propagate to other economic...

This paper studies two formal models of long run growth with a medium-run distributive cycle, both of which feature causal links from the rise in inequality to a deterioration of long run macroeconomic performance. Both versions feature an endogenous income-capital ratio: one through the...

We decompose the macroeconomic impact of Covid-19 in the US using three production network measures. First, we estimate the aggregate indirect effect of sectoral employment shocks, finding these “network spillovers” to account for ≈72% of the decline in real GDP over the second quarter of...