We test for mean reversion in real exchange rates using data from five countries, four of which have experienced episodes of high inflation. Using monthly data for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Israel, we find that a stochastic unit root model is typically appropriate (Brazil is the...

In this paper we develop a simple procedure which delivers tests for the pres-ence of a broken trend in a univariate time series which do not require knowledgeof the form of serial correlation in the data and are robust as to whether theshocks are generated by an I(0) or an I(1) process. Two...

It is known that Dickey-Fuller tests can lead to spurious rejections of the unit root nullhypothesis when the true generating process is difference-stationary with a break.Suppose now that an unsuccessful attempt is made to allow for a break, either throughmisplaced dummy variables or through...

We hypothesise that, given the typically uneven distribution of ethnic groups within acountry, ethnic diversity leads to greater local polarization and more frequent, butsmaller, conflicts that involve only some ethnic groups. These conflicts can beoverlooked if the number of fatalities is...

Can pegging reduce real as well as nominal, and multilateral as well as bilateralexchange rate volatility? We investigate this issue using monthly data for 139countries from January 1990 to June 2006...

Empirical evidence from the UK market is brought to bear on recent theories of closed-endfund discounts. Market pricing of skill, relative to the fees charged for it, accounts for asignificant portion of discount variation, but cannot explain the rarity of index funds orwhy they trade at a...

Real effective exchange rate volatility is examined for 90 countries using monthlydata from January 1990 to June 2006. Volatility decreases with openness tointernational trade and per capita GDP, and increases with inflation, particularlyunder a horizontal peg or band, and with terms-of-trade...

A poor country with volatile export prices borrows in international markets. When debtis denominated in foreign currency, there is a temptation to repudiate when export pricesare low...