The most relevant practical impediment to an application of the Markowitz portfolio selectionapproach is the problem of estimating return moments, in particular return expectations. We analyzethe consequences of using return estimates implied by analysts’ dividend forecasts under the...

The estimation of expected security returns is one of the major tasks for the practical implementationof the Markowitz portfolio optimization. Against this background, in 1992 Black and Littermandeveloped an approach based on (theoretically established) expected equilibrium returns whichaccounts...

The measurement of concentration risk in credit portfolios is necessary for the determinationof regulatory capital under Pillar 2 of Basel II as well as for managing portfolios and allocating economiccapital. Existing multi-factor models that deal with concentration risk are often inconsistent...

Der wachsende Wettbewerbsdruck im Bankensektor führte in den letzten Jahrentrotz eines geringen Zinsniveaus zu sinkenden Zinsmargen im Verbraucherkreditgeschäft. Hervorgerufenwird diese Änderung der Angebotspreise durch die sinkende Bedeutung der Hausbankbeziehungsowie der steigenden Anzahl...

(CAT-)astrophe Bonds are of significant importance in the field of alternative risk transfer.Since the market of CAT Bonds is not as liquid as e.g. the stock market, the use of pricing models is ofhigh relevance. One important parameter in all pricing models is the probability of catastrophe....

Several attempts have been made to reduce the impact of estimation errors on the optimalportfolio composition. On the one hand, improved estimators of the necessary momentshave been developed and on the other hand, heuristic methods have been generated to enhancethe portfolio performance, for...

A non-stationary regression model for financial returns is examined theoretically in this paper.Volatility dynamics are modelled both exogenously and deterministic, captured by a nonparametriccurve estimation on equidistant centered returns. We prove consistency and asymptotic normalityof a...

In this paper we first investigate the validity of a general Value at Risk approach, which iswidely used for risk management in banking and insurance companies. We discuss and widely rejectthe conventional assumptions, e.g. independent identically distributed normal returns, and as...

The most relevant practical impediment to an application of the Markowitz portfolio selection approach is the problem of estimating return moments, in particular return expectations. We analyze the consequences of using return estimates implied by analysts' dividend forecasts under the explicit...

We show analytically under quite general conditions that implied rates of return based on analysts' earnings forecasts are only a downward biased estimator for future expected one-period returns and therefore not suited for computing market risk premia. The extent of this bias is substantial as...