The balance sheet adjustment in the household sector was a prominent feature of the Great Recession that is widely believed to have held back the cyclical recovery of the US economy. A key question for the US outlook is therefore whether household deleveraging has ended or whether further...

The model presented here is an estimated medium-scale model for the United States (US) economy developed to forecast and analyse policy issues for the US. The model is specified to track the deviation of the medium-run developments from the balanced-growth-path via an estimated CES production...

This paper summarises the findings of the Eurosystem’s Expert Group on Inflation Expectations (EGIE), which was one of the 13 work streams conducting analysis that fed into the ECB’s monetary policy strategy review. The EGIE was tasked with (i) reviewing the nature and behaviour of inflation...

This paper assesses how globalisation has shaped the economic environment in which the ECB operates and discusses whether this warrants adjustments to the monetary policy strategy. The paper first looks at how trade and financial integration have evolved since the last strategy review in 2003....

As a major player in world trade, the euro area is strongly influenced by globalisation, but is far from being a passive spectator. The paper analyses how the euro area's trade specialization has changed in response to stronger international competition and the emergence of new global players,...

This paper investigates the effectiveness of market discipline in limiting excessive risk-taking by banks. We have constructed a large cross-country panel data set consisting of observations on 729 individual banks from 32 different countries over the years 1993 to 2000. Theory implies that the...

We present non-linear models to capture the turning points in global economic activity as well as in advanced and emerging economies from 1980 to 2017. We first estimate Markov Switching models within a univariate framework. These models support the relevance of three business cycle regimes...

Members of the US House of Representatives have proposed a major overhaul of the US corporate tax system, the so-called "destination-based border-adjusted cash-flow tax" (DBCFT). The literature on the economic implications and spillovers of such a DBCFT is scarce. This paper aims to provide a...