The Bank's Agents collect economic intelligence from the business community around the United Kingdom, enriching the range of information available to the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). The intelligence is largely qualitative, but Agents also make quantitative judgements in the form of scores....

Density forecast combinations are becoming increasingly popular as a means of improving forecast ‘accuracy', as measured by a scoring rule. In this paper we generalise this literature by letting the combination weights follow more general schemes. Sieve estimation is used to optimise the score...

Density forecast combinations are becoming increasingly popular as a means of improving forecast 'accuracy', as measured by a scoring rule. In this paper we generalise this literature by letting the combination weights follow more general schemes. Sieve estimation is used to optimise the score...

This paper investigates the real-time forecast performance of the Bank of England's main DSGE model, COMPASS, before, during and after the financial crisis with reference to statistical and judgemental benchmarks. A general finding is that COMPASS's relative forecast performance improves as the...

Density forecast combinations are becoming increasingly popular as a means of improving forecast ‘accuracy’, as measured by a scoring rule. In this paper we generalise this literature by letting the combination weights follow more general schemes. Sieve estimation is used to optimise the...

The Bank’s Agents collect economic intelligence from the business community around the United Kingdom, enriching the range of information available to the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). The intelligence is largely qualitative, but Agents also make quantitative judgements in the form of...