Goodwin and Fildes comment on the issue 14 Foresight article by Orrell and McSharry, A Systems Approach to Forecasting, part of a special feature entitled Rethinking the Ways We Forecast Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009

Goodwin covers the pros and cons of complexity in advanced forecasting methods and warns that recommendations based on them should be supported by strong evidence of reliability. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011

Holt-Winters (HW) is the label we frequently give to a set of procedures that form the core of the exponential-smoothing family of forecasting methods. The basic structures were provided by C.C. Holt in 1957 and his student Peter Winters in 1960. Those of you unfamiliar with exponential...