The past 25 years has seen phenomenal growth of interest in judgemental approaches to forecasting and a significant change of attitude on the part of researchers to the role of judgement. While previously judgement was thought to be the enemy of accuracy, today judgement is recognised as an...

Paul Goodwin reports on recent research into the theory that combining forecasts from different methods or sources can result in greater forecast accuracy. He cites studies by George Kapetanios, as well as several other researchers, to support the conclusion that "combining forecasts is...

Goodwin defines hindsight bias and gives examples, examines its psychological basis, shows how it may interfere with the forecasting process, and suggests ways it might be at least partly overcome. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2010

A number of studies have shown that providing point forecasts to decision makers can lead to improved production planning decisions. However, point forecasts do not convey information about the level of uncertainty that is associated with forecasts. In theory, the provision of prediction...