Using the statistical technique of fuzzy clustering, regimes of inflation and unemployment are explored for the United States, the United Kingdom and Germany between 1871 and 2009. We identify for each country three distinct regimes in inflation/unemployment space. There is considerable...

In recent years, the economic analysis of crime has helped increase our understanding of different influences on crime levels. Although economic factors may not cause crime, different economic circumstances can increase or decrease the likelihood that an individual who may feel inclined towards...

Conviction narrative theory (CNT), a social psychological approach to the way economic agents take deisions under Knightian uncertainty, together with the new methodology of directed algorithmic text analysis (DATA), provide the opportunity for a theory of economic sentiment or animal sprits...

This paper applies algorithmic analysis to large amounts of financial market text-based data to assess how narratives and sentiment play a role in driving developments in the financial system. We find that changes in the emotional content in market narratives are highly correlated across data...

This paper applies algorithmic analysis to large amounts of financial market text-based data to assess how narratives and sentiment play a role in driving developments in the financial system. We find that changes in the emotional content in market narratives are highly correlated across data...

In the summer of 2012, I was invited to write a weekly opinion column for City A.M. newspaper. It is a free, business-focused newspaper, launched in 2005, and is distributed at more than 250 commuter hubs across London and the Home Counties, as well as 1,600 offices throughout the City, Canary...

In contrast to the recent past, there is now widespread concern about the apparent excesses of some pay structures in corporate businesses. Top pay has risen much faster than average levels of pay in the last twenty years. This is in part the consequence of globalisation and developments in...

The seminal work on epidemiological models was carried out in the late 1920s and early 1930s. The models have developed substantially since, but their key drivers are those discovered nearly a century ago. Epidemiological models have real scientific value. However, any forecast made with them...

Throughout the COVID-19 crisis, governments have relied heavily on the advice of epidemiologists and health professionals, while economists maintained a low profile in policymaking. This paper illustrates how economic insights could have helped and would be essential in future pandemics. Its...