We analyze covariance matrix estimation from the perspective of market risk management, where the goal is to obtain accurate estimates of portfolio risk across essentially all portfolios—even those with small standard deviations. We propose a simple but effective visualization tool to assess...

We find that an increase in the ``unusualness'' of news with negative sentiment predicts an increase in stock market volatility. Similarly, unusual positive news forecasts lower volatility. Our analysis is based on more than 360,000 articles on 50 large financial companies, published in...

This article develops precise connections among two general approaches to building interest rate models: a general equilibrium approach using a pricing kernel and the Heath, Jarrow, and Morton framework based on specifying forward rate volatilities and the market price of risk. The connections...

An important recent development in the pricing of interest rate derivatives is the emergence of models that incorporate lognormal volatilities for forward Libor or forward swap rates while keeping interest rates stable. These market models have three attractive features: they preclude arbitrage...

This paper develops methods for relating the prices of discrete- and continuous-time versions of path-dependent options sensitive to extremal values of the underlying asset, including lookback, barrier, and hindsight options. The relationships take the form of correction terms that can be...

Monte Carlo simulation has trouble with American options because the exercise decision at a given date must compare the option's immediate exercise value against its continuation value. The option value if it is not exercised is a function of its value along all possible future price paths from...

In this paper we present two direct methods, a pathwise method and a likelihood ratio method, for estimating derivatives of security prices using simulation. With the direct methods, the information from a single simulation can be used to estimate multiple derivatives along with a security's...

This paper studies the spread of losses and defaults in financial networks with two important features: collateral requirements and alternative contract termination rules in bankruptcy. When collateral is committed to a firm's counterparties, a solvent firm may default if it lacks sufficient...

This paper surveys the rapidly growing literature about interconnectedness and financial stability. The paper focuses on insights in the literature on the relationship between network structure and the vulnerability of the financial system to contagion

We develop a model of investor information choices and asset prices where the availability of information about fundamentals is time-varying. A competitive research sector produces more information when more investors are willing to pay for that research. This feedback, from investor willingness...