This chapter investigates the implications of adaptive learning in the private sector's formation of inflation expectations for the conduct of monetary policy. We first review the literature that studies the implications of adaptive learning processes for macroeconomic dynamics under various...

The move to monetary union in Europe led to convergence of interest rates among the participating countries. This was associated with notable cross-country differences in the behaviour of key macroeconomic aggregates. Compared to the low interest rate countries, former high interest rate...

This article challenges the conventional wisdom that price level targeting necessarily increases the volatility of inflation and economic activity. It shows that the optimal policy under commitment for a society that cares only about the variability of output and inflation involves only a...

Cover -- Contents -- Foreword -- Acknowledgments -- Contributors -- INTRODUCTION -- 1 Fiscal Politics -- PART I: ELECTIONS, IDEOLOGY, AND POLITICAL FRAGMENTATION -- 2 Governments and Promised Fiscal Consolidations: Do They Mean What They Say? -- 3 Fiscal Policy over the Election Cycle in...

Internationally coordinated climate mitigation policies can effectively put the world on a path toward achieving the agreed Paris temperature goals. Such coordination could be initiated by large players, such as China, the US, India, the African Union, and the European Union. We find that the...

This paper quantifies the costs of a permanent increase in debt to GDP. We employ a deterministic, overlapping generations model with two assets and no risk of default. The two assets are public debt and private (productive) capital. We assume that the return on private capital equals the...

Two main themes of the book are that (1) politics can distort optimal fiscal policy through elections and through political fragmentation, and (2) rules and institutions can attenuate the negative effects of this dynamic. The book has three parts: part 1 (9 chapters) outlines the problems; part...

This Staff Discussion Note looks at the stark fiscal challenges posed by the decline and aging of populations between now and 2100. It finds that without reforms, pensions and health spending would rise to 25 percent of GDP by end-century in more developed countries (and 16 percent of GDP in...