We propose an equilibrium model for defaultable bonds that are subject to contagion risk. Contagion arises because agents with "fragile beliefs"' are uncertain about the underlying economic state and its probability. Estimation on sovereign European credit default swaps (CDS) data shows that...

Empirical tests of reduced form models of default attribute a large fraction of observed credit spreads to compensation for jump-to-default risk. However, these models preclude a “contagion-risk” channel, where the aggregate corporate bond index reacts adversely to a credit event. In this...

Empirical tests of reduced form models of default attribute a large fraction of observed credit spreads to compensation for jump-to-default risk. However, these models preclude a "contagion-risk'' channel, where the aggregate corporate bond index reacts adversely to a credit event. In this...

As a result of the current financial crisis, there have been many calls for strict new regulation of over-the-counter financial derivatives. This paper proposes, instead, that we return to the now-voided common law on derivatives and consider them non-legally enforceable gambling contracts...

We investigate liquidity shocks and shocks to fundamentals during financial crises at commercial banks, investment banks, and hedge funds. Liquidity shock amplification models assume that widespread funding problems cause fire sales. We find that most banks do not experience funding declines...

We examine CEO partisanship and the speed of adjustment to target leverage ratios. Republicans, who prior literature views as risk-averse, are expected to move more aggressively to their targets when over-levered and more slowly when under-levered. However, Republicans’ dislike of taxes...