In a macroeconomic model with drifting long-run inflation expectations, the anchoring of inflation expectations manifests in two testable predictions. First, expectations about inflation far in the future should no longer respond to news about current inflation. Second, better anchored inflation...

With 70 percent of its population living in coastal areas and low-lying deltas, Vietnam is exposed to many natural hazards, including river and coastal flooding. These hazards are expected to worsen due to climate change, and the impacts of any change in hazard magnitude may be particularly...

We examine the macroeconomic effects of forward guidance shocks at the zero lower bound. Empirically, we identify forward guidance shocks using unexpected changes in futures contracts around monetary policy announcements. We then embed these policy shocks into a standard vector autoregression to...

In a sticky-price model where firms finance their production inputs, there is both a lower and an upper bound on the central bank's inflation response necessary to rule out the possibility of self-fulfilling inflation expectations. This paper shows that real wage rigidities decrease this upper...

Deteriorating economic conditions in late 2008 led the Federal Reserve to lower the target federal funds rate to near zero, inject liquidity into the financial system through novel facilities, and engage in large scale asset purchases. The combination of conventional and unconventional policy...

This paper develops a financial mechanism which integrates housing and the real economy through housing-secured debt. In this environment, movements in home prices are amplified through both borrowers and banks' balance sheets, leading to a self-reinforcing credit/liquidity crunch. When placed...

Which groups of elected officials should be in charge of decisions about the imposition of lockdowns and other social distancing rules? People throughout the UK have debated this issue since the start of the pandemic. When central government, local governments, and devolved administrations all...