Policymakers considering interventions that improve cognitive performance (IQ) need estimates of the value of IQ improvements. Using the classical model of structured expert judgment, we develop estimates of the percentage increase in earned income from interventions to increase IQ in India. Our...

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions not only lowers expected damages from climate change but also reduces the risk of catastrophic impacts. However, estimates of the social cost of carbon, which measures the marginal value of carbon dioxide abatement, often do not capture this risk reduction...

The Oil Spill Commission's chartered mission - to “develop options to guard against … any oil spills associated with offshore drilling in the future” (National Commission 2010) - presents a major challenge: how to reduce the risk of low-frequency oil spill events, and especially...

Regular vines or vine copula provide a rich class of multivariate densities with arbitrary one dimensional margins and Gaussian or non-Gaussian dependence structures. The density enables calculation of all conditional distributions, in particular, regression functions for any subset of variables...

Deep and shallow uncertainty are defined and contrasted with regard to messaging the uncertainty about climate change. Deep uncertainty is often traced back to the writings of Frank Knight, where in fact it simply meant subjective probability. Although Knight envisioned a scientifically grounded...

This book is an extensive survey and critical examination of the literature on the use of expert opinion in scientific inquiry and policy making. The elicitation, representation, and use of expert opinion is increasingly important for two reasons: advancing technology leads to more and more...