To be useful as policy indicators, the monetary aggregates M1 and M2 must either (1) provide information on the current state of the economy or (2) help predict future values of economic variables that are of concern to the policymakers. Statistical analysis shows that these aggregates perform...

This paper presents new facts regarding the behavior of the ex-ante real rate of interest. These facts are notably different from conventional wisdom about the cyclical properties of the real rate. In particular, we find that the ex-ante real rate is contemporaneously positively correlated with...

Empirical studies of the consumption-wealth relationship often assume a framework in which aggregate household spending depends linearly on wealth, the underlying state variable. These studies have given rise to many estimates of the wealth effect. In a general equilibrium setting, however, both...

The postwar U.S. labor market has been characterized by steadily rising employment rates. An examination of the data suggests that two factors, namely demographic trends and increased female participation, have been largely responsible for this phenomenon; we focus on the latter factor. Within a...