We build and test a Bayesian model that shows how investors revise their earnings persistence expectations after dividend announcements. When dividend changes confirm preceding earnings changes, our model predicts inverse u-shaped investor revisions conditional on the prior expectations for...

The stylized facts that firms pay and investors react to dividends disregard dividend neutrality. Taking on the perspective that informational asymmetries are the central determinant for dividend value relevance, Christian Müller assumes that firm’s dividend decision conveys useful...