There is a huge literature on the existence of risk premia in the foreign exchange markets and its influence in explaining the divergence between the forward exchange rate and the subsequently realised spot exchange rate. In this paper, we seek to model directly the risk premium as a...

This paper considers a stochastic volatility version of the Heath, Jarrow and Morton (1992) term structure model. Market completeness is obtained by adapting the Hobson and Rogers (1998) complete stochastic volatility stock market model to the interest rate setting. Numerical simulation for a...

Stability and bifurcation analysis of deterministic systems has been widely used in modeling financial markets. However, the impact of such dynamic phenomena on various statistical properties of the corresponding stochastic model, including skewness and excess kurtosis, various autocorrelation...

This paper attempts to study the dynamics of a simple discounted present value asset price model where agents have different risk attitudes and follow different expectation formulation schemes for both first and second moments of the price distribution. Instead of using a Walrasian auctioneer...

Within the framework of the heterogeneous agent paradigm, we establish a stochastic model of speculative price dynamics involving of two types of agents, fundamentalists and chartists, and the market price equilibria of which can be characterised by the invariant measures of a random dynamical...

This paper studies intertemporal investment strategies under inflation risk by extending the intertemporal framework of Merton (1973) to include a stochastic price index. The stochastic price index gives rise to a two-tier evaluation system: agents maximize their utility of consumption in real...

We consider the pricing of American bond options in a Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework in which the forward rate volatility is a function of time to maturity and the instantaneous spot rate of interest. We have shown in Chiarella and El-Hassan (1996) that the resulting pricing partial differential...

The existence of risk premium is thought to be the reason why forward exchange rate is not an unbiased predictor of future spot exchange rate. In this paper we review two methodologies for inferring this unobserved risk premium based upon signal extraction mechanism. One approach relies on the...

In this paper, we develop a model of business cycle fluctuations between two interacting open economies within the disequilibrium or non-market clearing paradigm. We analyze the main feedback mechanisms (Keynes, Mundell, Rose and Dornbusch) driving the dynamics and the conflict between their...

A nonlinear exchange rate model based on the famous Dornbusch (1976) overshhoting model is modified to allow for explicit consideration of the sources of supply and demand in the foreign exchange market along the lines suggested by Kouri (1983). Imperfect substitutability between domestic and...