We study time variation in expected excess bond returns. We run regressions of one-year excess returns on initial forward rates. We find that a single factor, a single tent-shaped linear combination of forward rates, predicts excess returns on one- to five-year maturity bonds with R2 up to 0.44....

Introduction -- A systemic regulator for financial markets -- A new information infrastructure for financial markets -- Regulation of retirement savings -- Reforming capital requirements for financial institutions -- Regulation of executive compensation in financial services -- An expedited...

The Taylor rule at thirty / Richard H. Clarida -- Naming the Taylor rule / John Lipsky -- The Taylor rule at thirty : still useful to get the Fed back on track / Volker Wieland -- Silicon Valley Bank and beyond : regulating for liquidity / Darrell Duffie -- Silicon Valley Bank : what happened?...