A new time-series model is used to reassess the strength of the link between inflation uncertainty and the level of inflation in the United States. The model provides several statistical measures that can be used to examine different aspects of uncertainty. The main finding is that uncertainty...

Macroeconomic models of nominal exchange rates perform poorly. In sample, R2 statistics as high as 10 percent are rare. Out of sample, these models are typically out-forecast by a na‹ve random walk. This paper presents a model of a new kind. Instead of relying exclusively on macroeconomic...

Under conventional notions about rational expectations and market efficiency, expected returns differ from the actual expost returns by a forecast error that is uncorrelated with current information. In this paper, we describe how small departures from conventional notions of rational...

This article uses modern asset pricing theory to examine the behavior of short-term nominal interest rates over the past twenty-five years. The analysis investigates whether variation in the stochastic behavior of consumption growth and inflation can explain movements in the rate of interest....

This article explores the conceptualisation of choice as autonomy using three components – self-reflection, active decision-making, and quality and range of options - and investigates empirical inequalities in autonomy, using newly-collected data for the UK. ‘Choice’ has been promoted in...

This paper analyses the Government's proposals contained in A New Contract for Welfare: Partnership in Pensions. It examines the position of low paid workers and the potential of the proposals to protect individuals from means-tested old age. The paper identifies that the Green Paper's proposals...

This article summarizes exchange-rate research using microstructure models. It first lays out the key features of the foreign exchange market and describes how they are incorporated into a canonical model of currency trading. The empirical implications of the model are then examined. The article...

This CASEbrief summarises the responses to 'The pensions Green Paper - A new contract for welfare: partnership in pensions' made by members of CASE in CASEpaper 23, 'Tightropes and tripwires: New Labour's proposals and means-testing in old age' by Katherine Rake, Jane Falkingham and Martin...