A rational bubble would involve a self-confirming belief that an asset price depends on information that includes variables or parameters that are not part of market fundamentals. The existing literature shows that, if market fundamentals are economically interesting, i.e., forward looking, any...

This paper describes a theoretical and empirical study of the possibility of rational bubbles in the relative price ofgold. The critical implication of the theoretical analysis is that, if rational bubbles exist, the time series of the relative price of gold, as well as any time series obtained...

This paper introduces contemporaneously available monetary data into an "equilibrium" model that combines rational expectations, market clearing, and incomplete information about monetary disturbances. Data on the current money stock involve a preliminary estimate that is subject to a subsequent...

This paper develops an economic theory of empire building. This theory addresses the choice among three strategies that empire builders historically have used. We call these strategies Uncoerced Annexation, Coerced Annexation, and Attempted Conquest. The theory shows how the choice among these...

We develop a positive theory of kleptocracy, in which the incumbent ruler's concern about his survival probability can induce him to pursue relatively benevolent policies. But, this effect can lower the equilibrium tax rate only until the time-consistency requirement becomes a binding constraint...

This paper develops a model for studying colonial investment in which the metropolitan government restricts the amount of investment in the colony in order to maximize the net profits earned in the colony. The model explicitly includes the threat of subversive activity by the indigenous colonial...

This paper describes a theoretical and empirical study of the Japanese macroeconomy that focuses on the role of predetermined nominal wages in the relation between monetary policy and aggregate output. The main features of the model are that nominal wage rates set at Shunto are equal to rational...

This paper shows how predation breaks the links between an economy's aggregate resourceendowment and aggregate consumption and between the interpersonal distribution of endowments and the interpersonal distribution of consumption. We construct a general-equilibrium model in which some people...

Some polities are able to use constitutionally prescribed political processes to settle distributional disputes, whereas in other polities distributional disputes result in civil conflict. Theoretical analysis reveals that the following properties help to make it possible to design a...