We study the predictability of stock returns using an iterative model-building approach known as quantile boosting. Examining alternative return quantiles that represent normal, bull and bear markets via recursive quantile regressions, we trace the predictive value of extensively studied...

This paper examines the predictive power of the U.S. term structure over return volatility in emerging stock markets. Decomposing the term structure of U.S. Treasury yields into two components, the expectations factor and the maturity premium, we show that the U.S. term structure indeed contains...

Utilizing a large sample of actively managed equity funds and a recently developed EPU index for New Zealand, we show that fund flow performance sensitivity decreases with policy uncertainty. The role of policy uncertainty as a determinant of fund flow performance sensitivity is found to be...

This paper proposes a Markov-Switching (MS) test of herding behavior in China's segmented stock markets under a regime-changing environment. Using firm-level data on the A-shares (denominated in Chinese Renminbi) and B-shares (denominated in U.S. and Hong Kong dollars), we estimate an MS model...

This paper examines the dynamic relationship between global factors and herding behavior in the oil-rich frontier stock markets of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), using a time-varying transition probability Markov Switching model (TVTP-MS). Our results suggest that the GCC frontier stock...

This paper examines the international diversification benefits of nine bloc-wide equity sectors/subsectors in the oil-rich Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries by comparing alternative spillover models that encompass local, regional and global factors. Both the return and volatility...

We explore the possible causal effect of economic policy uncertainty on the connectedness of crude oil and currency markets using a sample of commodity currencies from advanced and emerging nations. A battery of linear and nonlinear Granger-based causality tests indicate the presence of a causal...