This paper provides first and second-order approximation methods for the solution of non-linear dynamic stochastic models in which the exogenous state variables follow conditionally linear stochastic processes displaying time-varying risk. The first-order approximation is consistent with a...

Asset prices and the equity premium might reflect doubts and pessimism. Introducing these features in an otherwise standard New-Keynesian model changes optimal policy in a substantial way. There are three main results: (i) asset-price movements improve the inflation-output trade-off so that...

This paper studies monetary policy in models where multiple assets have different liquidity properties: safe and "pseudo-safe" assets coexist. A shock worsening the liquidity properties of the pseudo-safe assets raises interest-rate spreads and can cause a deep recession cum deflation. Expanding...

Deleveraging from high debt can provoke deep recession with significant international side effects. The exchange rate of the deleveraging country will depreciate in the short run and appreciate in the long run. The real interest rate will fall by more than in the rest of the world. Bounds and...

We propose a theory of low-frequency movements in unemployment based on downward real wage rigidities. The theory generates two main predictions: long-run unemployment increases with (i) a fall in long-run productivity growth and (ii) a rise in the variance of productivity growth. Evidence based...

This paper provides first and second-order approximation methods for the solution of nonlinear dynamic stochastic models in which the exogenous state variables follow conditionally-linear stochastic processes displaying time-varying risk. The first-order approximation is consistent with a...

This paper provides first and second-order approximation methods for the solution of non-linear dynamic stochastic models in which the exogenous state variables follow conditionally-linear stochastic processes displaying time-varying risk. The first-order approximation is consistent with a...

This paper provides first and second-order approximation methods for the solution of non-linear dynamic stochastic models in which the exogenous state variables follow conditionally-linear stochastic processes displaying time-varying risk. The first-order approximation is consistent with a...

This paper studies the theoretical conditions under which price stability is the optimal policy in a two-country open-economy model with imperfect competition and price stickiness. Special conditions on the levels of country-specific distortionary taxation and the intratemporal and intertemporal...