We analyse the ability to the distance-to-default and bond spreads to signal bank fragility. We show that both indicators are complete and unbiased and that spreads are non-linear in the probability of bank default. We empirically test these properties in a sample of EU banks. We find leading...

We analyse EU banks' equity market-based distances-to-default and subordinated bond spreads in the secondary market in relation to their capability of signalling a material weakening in banks' financial condition. Both indicators are demonstrated to be complete indicators of bank fragility,...

We examine whether two commonly used indicators of bank fragility, the subordinated debt spread and KMV’s distance to default, yield signals in line with supervisors’ interests. We argue that supervisors would prefer indicators that are strictly increasing in earnings, and decreasing in...

The paper analyses the relationship between deposit insurance, debt-holder monitoring, and risk taking. In a stylised banking model we show that deposit insurance may reduce moral hazard, if deposit insurance credibly leaves out non-deposit creditors. Testing the model using EU bank level data...

This paper analyses cross-border contagion in a sample of European banks from January 1994 to January 2003. We use a multinomial logit model to estimate the number of banks in a given country that experience a large shock on the same day (coexceedancesʺ) as a function of variables measuring...

This paper analyses cross-border contagion in a sample of European banks from January 1994 to January 2003. We use a multinomial logit model to estimate the number of banks in a given country that experience a large shock on the same day (coexceedancesʺ) as a function of variables measuring...