Müller, Ulrich K.; Kirchgässner, Gebhard - In: Journal of Forecasting 25 (2006) 6, pp. 401-413
People are reluctant to admit mistakes. This could also be true of economic forecasters. If revisions of past forecasts are costly, then it will become optimal for forecasters to only partially adjust a past forecast in the light of new information. The unwillingness to admit to the mistake in...