The carry-over effect is the advance contribution of the old year to growth in the new year. Among practitioners the informative content of the carry-over effect for short-term forecasting is undisputed and is used routinely in economic forecasting. In this paper, the carry-over effect is...

There is a broad consensus among economists that, in the long run, inflation is a monetary phenomenon. However, monetary policy is often analysed using models that have no causal role for monetary aggregates in the propagation of inflationary processes. Moreover, impulses from monetary policy...

Wegen der zunehmenden Alterung bzw. steigenden Lebenserwartung der deutschen Bevölkerung nimmt die Zahl von Pflegebedürftigen ständig zu. Immer mehr Personen mit pflegebedürftigen Eltern werden von den Sozialämtern zum Unterhalt verpflichtet. Die finanzielle Belastung hängt davon ab,...