This paper estimates a simple model of the exchange rate between the East and West German Mark immediately preceding German monetary union. Although there is a theoretical literature on exchange rate dynamics when the introduction of a fixed exchange rate is anticipated, the absence of data has...

This paper studies the relationships between inflation, economic activity, credit, monetary policy, and residential property and equity prices in 17 OECD countries, using quarterly data for 1986-2006. Using a panel VAR, we find plausible and significant responses to a monetary policy shock....

This paper studies the usefulness of spreads between interest rates of different maturities as indicators of future inflation and real interest rates in Germany, using monthly data starting in 1967:1. The central results are twofold. First, the interest rate spreads considered contain...

This paper studies 1, 3, 6 and 12-month Euro-rates for 17 countries using between 10 and 30 years of data. Term spreads contain information about future short-term rates in all 51 regressions that we estimate. Furthermore, in 35 cases we accept the expectations hypothesis. Using cross-sectional...

This paper uses weekly data on short-term eurorates for ten countries for the period 1979-96 to document that the ability of the expectations hypothesis (EH) to account for movements in the term structure is greater, and that short- term interest rates are more predictable, under fixed than...

type="main" xml:lang="en" <title type="main">SUMMARY</title> </section> <title type="main">The Pillars of The ECB</title> <p> I interpret the European Central Bank's two-pillar strategy by proposing an empirical model for inflation that distinguishes between the short- and long-run components of inflation. The latter component depends on an exponentially...</p>