The primary objective of this article is to advance the development of early warning of intrastate conflict by combining country-level structural and events data in a logistic regression model calibrated and validated using split-sample cases. Intrastate conflict is defined by the occurrence of...

In recent years, state fragility has gained importance as a result of the perceived links between poverty, conflict, and global terrorism. In this paper, we examine the relationship between state fragility and aid by evaluating the literature and research programs currently extant. We bring...

Purpose – The relationship between globalization – through trade liberalization – and inequality is unclear. The Stolper-Samuelson theorem, which is a standard result in trade theory, does not offer compelling answers as globalized economies with an abundance of unskilled labour have seen...

Purpose – The relationship between globalization – through trade liberalization – and inequality is unclear. The Stolper‐Samuelson theorem, which is a standard result in trade theory, does not offer compelling answers as globalized economies with an abundance of unskilled labour have...

This paper quantifies and assesses the impact of an adverse loan supply (LS) shock on Peru's main macroeconomic aggregates using a Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) model in combination with an identification scheme with sign restrictions. The main results indicate that an adverse LS shock:...