Standard econometric tests for whether money causes output will be meaningless if monetary policy is chosen optimally to smooth fluctuations in output. If U.S. monetary policy were chosen to smooth U.S. output, we show that U.S. money will not Granger cause U.S. output. Indeed, as shown by Rowe...

Following the methodology used by Kim and Nelson (1999b), I find estimates of the permanent and transitory components for Canadian regions based on the Friedman model of business fluctuations. The empirical results support the theoretical predictions that negative transitory shocks hit the...

The behaviour of the long-run real exchange rate for four Latin-American countries is investigated for the period 1957-2002. The long-run real exchange rate is derived from an unobserved component model which divides the real exchange rate into a permanent and a transitory component. The...

Following the approach suggested by Favero and Rovelli (2002), I estimate a three-equations system for different sub-samples for Canada. The results indicate that the preferences of the monetary authority have changed between the different regimes. In particular, the parameter associated to the...

When using quasi-differenced data in a model where a break in the intercept is allowed, asymptotic distributions of the M, ADF, and PT statistics are the same as those in the model where only an intercept and a time trend are included. However, the finite sample behaviour for common sample sizes...

Following Elliott (1999) and Perron and Rodríguez (2003), we develop unit root tests in the context of structural change models using GLS detrended data (Elliott, Rothenberg and Stock, 1996) when the initial observation is drawn from its unconditional distribution. We derive the limiting...

This paper uses six time series models to forecast seasonally unadjusted monthly data of Canadian enplaned/deplaned air passengers, for the domestic, transborder and international sectors. We find that forecasting performance of the models varies widely across series and forecast horizons. Our...

Patent citations are extensively used as a measure of patent quality. How­ever, counting citations does not account for the fast that citations corne from patents of different qualities, and that some citations are of a higher quality than other citations. We propose and develop a citation...

Following Doménech and Gómez (2006), and using quarterly Peruvian data for 1970:1-2007:4, I estimate a model that exploits the information contained in the inflation, unemployment and private investment rates in order to estimate non-observable variables as output gap, the NAIRU and the core...