A large literature suggests that standard exchange rate models cannot outperform a random walk forecast and that the forward rate is not an optimal predictor of the spot rate. However, there is evidence that the term structure of forward premia contains valuable information for forecasting...

[eng] Transitory and permanent components of saving and investment: an empirical study of . international capital flows in Japan by Eric Girardin, Lucio Sarno and Mark P. Taylor . This paper presents an empirical study of the difference between the short- and the long-run saving-investment...

The last two decades have seen a number of important developments in exchange rate economics, with substantial contributions to both its theory and empirics. While our understanding of exchange rates has significantly improved, a number of challenges and open questions in the exchange rate...

Our paper assesses progress made by the profession in understanding whether and how exchange rate intervention works. We review theory and evidence on official intervention, concentrating primarily on work published in the last decade or so. We conclude that, unlike the profession's consensus of...

This paper examines the effect of financial deregulation on consumption expenditure in France during the period 1970-1993. A nonlinear model for consumption which allows for liquidity constraints through a time-varying parameter dependent on a proxy for financial deregulation is estimated using...

We assess the progress made by the profession in understanding real exchange rate behavior through a selective and critical, but nonetheless expository, review of the literature. Our reading of the literature leads us to the main conclusions that purchasing power parity might be viewed as a...