Empirical evidence suggests that asset returns correlate more strongly in bear markets than conventional correlation estimates imply. We propose a method for determining complete tail-correlation matrices based on Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimates. We demonstrate how to obtain more effi cient...

In this paper we construct a model of stock market, interest rate and output interaction which is a generalization of the well known 1981 model of Blanchard. We allow for imperfect substitutability between stocks and bonds in the asset market and for lagged portfolio adjustment. The reaction of...

This paper investigates the problem of testing for the symmetry of linear time series driven by asymmetric innovations. In particular, we examine the performance of alternative symmetry tests when innovations are fat tailed. Among the tests considered, only the test based on the tail estimator...

Financial markets embed expectations of central bank policy into asset prices. This paper compares two approaches that extract a probability density of market beliefs. The first is a simulated moments estimator for option volatilities described in Mizrach (2002); the second is a new approach...

The paper illustrates and evaluates a Kalman filtering method for forecasting German real GDP at monthly intervals. German real GDP is produced at quarterly intervals but analysts and decision makers often want monthly GDP forecasts. Quarterly GDP could be regressed on monthly indicators, which...

Since their introduction, quanto options have steadily gained popularity. Matching Black-Scholes-type pricing models and, more recently, a fat-tailed, normal tempered stable variant have been established. The objective here is to empirically assess the adequacy of quanto-option pricing models....

Recent research in financial economics has shown that rare large disasters have the potential to disrupt financial sectors via the destruction of capital stocks and jumps in risk premia. These disruptions often entail negative feedback effects on the macroeconomy. Research on disaster risks has...

This paper uses simulation-based portfolio optimization to mitigate the left tail risk of the portfolio. The contribution is twofold. (i) We propose the Markov regime-switching GARCH model with multivariate normal tempered stable innovation (MRS-MNTS-GARCH) to accommodate fat tails, volatility...

We investigate the use of a P-spline generalized additive hedonic model (GAM) for real estate prices in large U.S. cities, contrasting their predictive efficiency against commonly used linear and polynomial-based generalized linear models (GLM). Using intrinsic and extrinsic factors available...