We propose a new method to improve density forecasts of the equity premium using information from options markets. We obtain predictive densities from stochastic volatility (SV) and GARCH models, which we then tilt using the second moment of the risk-neutral distribution implied by options...

We analyze the daily positions of 31 foreign Central Banks in U.S. interest rate futures markets between 2003 and 2011 for targeted hedging or informed profit-making decisions. Central Bank positions before the financial crisis of 2007-2009 are consistent with hedging some underlying balance...

We examine how useful the popular Loughran and McDonald (2011, LM) tonal word lists are for extracting information in IPO prospectuses about first-day returns. We find that there is much more information in word use than captured by the LM tonal lists. We show that the connection between LM...

We critically review the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) assessment of the costs and benefits of the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2) as summarized in its regulatory impact analysis (RIA). We focus particularly on EPA's methods used to calculate the costs of the policy on the US fuel...

We analyze the daily positions of 31 foreign Central Banks in U.S. interest rate futures markets between 2003 and 2011 to investigate whether such positions reveal targeted hedging or informed profit-making decisions. Central Bank positions before the financial crisis of 2007-2009 are consistent...