The share of raw milk meeting fluid quality (Grade A) standards in the United States rose steadily through the latter half of the twentieth century, but a shrinking portion of that was used in fluid products. Grade A milk exceeds the quality standards for the manufactured products for which it...

This paper aims to bridge the gap between processes where shocks are permanent and those with transitory shocks by formulating a process in which the long run impact of each innovation is time varying and stochastic. Frequent transitory shocks are supplemented by occasional permanent shifts. The...

When applied to time series processes containing occasional level shifts, the log-periodogram (GPH) estimator often finds long memory. For a stationary markov switching process, which does not contain long memory, I show that the GPH estimator is substantially biased and I derive an asymptotic...

Complexity theory is receiving increasing attention in both academic and popular literature as a potential management tool. As momentum gathers surrounding its popularity in practical management, complexity theory is poised to become a management 'fad', and potentially an influential paradigm...

In Markov-switching regression models, we use Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence between the true and candidate models to select the number of states and variables simultaneously. In applying Akaike information criterion (AIC), which is an estimate of KL divergence, we find that AIC retains too...

We study the relationship between water nutrient pollution and U.S. agriculture using data between the early 1970s and late 2010s. We estimate a positive causal effect of corn acreage on nitrogen concentration in the country's water bodies using alternative empirical approaches. We find that a...

This article addresses the problem of forecasting time series that are subject to level shifts. Processes with level shifts possess a nonlinear dependence structure. Using the stochastic permanent breaks (STOPBREAK) model, I model this nonlinearity in a direct and flexible way that avoids...