When data exhibit cross-sectional variation in scale and regression parameters, pooled regression parameters can exhibit severe biases. It is commonly assumed that normalizing per-share earnings data by a firm's stock price eliminates cross-sectional variation in scale. This study shows that...

We present and estimate a Bayesian Hierarchical model of mutual fund returns. In our model, a fund's alpha reflects not only that fund's return history, but also information from other fund returns. Because parameters are estimated simultaneously for all funds, we can identify common residual...

This paper utilizes a Bayesian hierarchical model to study the distribution of skill (alphas) among mutual funds. The hierarchical model specifies a probability distribution over all parameters and funds, making it possible to formally analyze the variability of alphas across funds. In addition,...

This paper develops a formal model of analyst earnings forecasts that discriminates between rational behavior and that induced by cognitive biases. In the model, analysts are Bayesians who issue sequential forecasts that combine new information with the information contained in past forecasts....

Stock insurers can reduce or eliminate agency conflicts between policyholders and stockholders by issuing participating insurance. Despite this benefit, most stock companies don't offer participating contracts. This study explains why. We study an equilibrium with both stock and mutual insurers...

This paper presents a simple, intuitive investment strategy that improves upon the popular dollar-cost-averaging (DCA) approach. The investment strategy, which we call enhanced dollar-cost-averaging (EDCA), is a simple, rule-based strategy that retains most of the attributes of traditional DCA...

This study analyzes how equity mutual fund investor behavior has changed over time, and the associated impact on investor returns. First, we find that from 1991-2016 investor return-chasing behavior declined and more recently disappeared, while investor flows have become more sensitive to...

We study the relationship between stock returns and the implied volatility smile slope of call and put options. Stocks with a steeper put slope earn lower future returns, while stocks with a steeper call slope earn higher future returns. Using dispersion of opinion as a proxy for belief...

Actuaries manage risk, and asset price volatility is the most fundamental parameter in models of risk management. This study utilizes recent advances in econometric theory to decompose total asset price volatility into a smooth, continuous component and a discrete (jump) component. We analyze a...

This paper examines outside director compensation for a sample of 237 Fortune 500 firms over the 1998-2004 period. We document a trend towards fixed-value equity compensation and away from cash only and fixed-number equity compensation. Adjustments to director compensation are consistent with...