We present evidence of inefficient information processing in equity markets by documenting that biases in analysts' earnings forecasts are reflected in stock prices. In particular, we show that investors fail to fully account for optimistic bias associated with analyst disagreement. This bias...

I provide empirical support for Miller's (1977) hypothesis that a stock price will reflect the optimistic view whenever there is disagreement about its value. Using dispersion in analyst earnings forecasts as a proxy for disagreement, I find that high-dispersion stocks earn lower returns than...

We provide evidence that stocks with higher dispersion in analysts' earnings forecasts earn lower future returns than otherwise similar stocks. This effect is most pronounced in small stocks, and stocks that have performed poorly over the past year. Interpreting dispersion in analysts' forecasts...

This study demonstrates that the U.S. equity premium has declined significantly during the last three decades. The study calculates the equity premium using a variation of a formula in the classic Gordon stock valuation model. The calculation includes the bond yield, the stock dividend yield,...

We identify all return leader-follower pairs among individual stocks using Granger causality regressions. Thus-identified leaders reliably predict their followers' returns out of sample, and the return predictability works at the level of individual stocks rather than industries. Our results...

I present evidence of inefficient information processing in equity markets by documenting that negative information withheld by securities analysts is incorporated in stock prices with a significant delay. I estimate the extent of the withheld negative information based on the proportion of...

We identify all return leader-follower pairs among individual stocks using Granger causality regressions. Thus-identified leaders can reliably predict their followers' returns out of sample, and the return predictability works at the level of individual stocks rather than industries. Our results...

We document that stocks that experience sudden increases in idiosyncratic volatility underperform otherwise similar stocks in the future, and we propose that this phenomenon can be explained by the Miller (1977) conjecture. We show that volatility shocks can be traced to the unusual firm-level...

We investigate the determinants of mutual fund manager career outcomes. We find that, although career outcomes are largely determined by past performance, measured by returns and fund flows, personal attributes also factor in. All else equal, female managers are less likely to be promoted and...

We show that stocks that experience a sudden increase in idiosyncratic volatility earn abnormally high contemporaneous returns but significantly underperform otherwise similar stocks in the future. Our findings indicate that volatility shocks can be traced to unusual firm-level news. We...