Theory-consistent models have to be kept small to be tractable. If they are to forecast well, they have to condition on data that are unmodelled, noisy, patchy and about the future. Agents can also use these data to form their own expectations. In this paper we illustrate a scheme for jointly...

Este artículo pretende determinar qué conjunto de rigideces nominales y reales se debe incluir en un modelo DSGE para replicar la dinámica de las variables agregadas de la economía colombiana. Con este fin, se estiman varios modelos DSGE con distintas combinaciones de rigideces nominales y...

El gobierno es un agente que influye sobre la actividad económica a lo largo del ciclo y afecta las variables reales y nominales de un país por medio de sus políticas de ingreso y de gasto. También es un determinante importante de la estabilidad macroeconómica, en cuanto que esta depende,...

El gobierno es un agente que influye sobre la actividad económica a lo largo del ciclo y afecta las variables reales y nominales de un país por medio de sus políticas de ingreso y de gasto. También es un determinante importante de la estabilidad macroeconómica, en cuanto que esta depende,...

The sudden collapse of oil prices poses a challenge to inflation targeting central banks in oil exporting economies. This paper illustrates that challenge and conducts a quantitative assessment of the impact of permanent changes in oil prices in a small and open economy, in which oil represents...

In this paper two new measures of the Colombian output gap and the real neutral interest rate are proposed. Instead of relying only on statistical filters, the proposed measures use semi-structural New-Keynesian models, adapted for a small open economy. The output gap measures presented are in...

Banco de la República’s FX intervention policy is described, with a focus on its objectives and main features. Then, based on a survey of the effectiveness of sterilized intervention in Colombia, it is argued that this tool is not useful to cope with the challenges posed by medium term...

A growing body of literature is exploring firm export and R&D activities. However, most studies examine the first one, whilst considering the second as an explanatory variable or vice versa. This paper contributes to this literature by exploring the joint dynamics of exports and R&D using data...

In this paper two new measures of the Colombian output gap and the real neutral interest rate are proposed. Instead of relying only on statistical filters, the proposed measures use semi-structural New-Keynesian models, adapted for a small open economy. The output gap measures presented are in...