Keilman, Nico; Pham, Dinh Quang; Hetland, Arve - In: Demographic Research 6 (2002) 15, pp. 409-454
Deterministic population forecasts do not give an appropriate indication of forecast uncertainty. Forecasts should be probabilistic, rather than deterministic, so that their expected accuracy can be assessed. We review three main methods to compute probabilistic forecasts, namely time series...