Longevity risk arising from uncertain mortality improvement is one of the major risks facing annuity providers and pension funds. In this paper we show how applying trend models from non-life claims reserving to age-period-cohort mortality trends provides new insight in estimating mortality...

Longevity risk and the modeling of trends and volatility for mortality improvement has attracted increased attention driven by ageing populations around the world and the expected financial implications. The original Lee-Carter model that was used for longevity risk assessment included a single...

Economic scenario generators are the basis for generating simulated asset return and economic variable distributions for a range of actuarial applications in insurance and superannuation. Developing an economic scenario generator model for these practical applications is a challenging task...

Pricing and risk management for longevity risk has increasingly become a major challenge for life insurers and pension funds around the world. Risk transfer to financial markets, with their major capacity for efficient risk pooling, is an area of significant development for a successful...

Since its introduction, the Lee Carter model has been widely adopted as a means of modelling the distribution of projected mortality rates. Increasingly attention is being placed on alternative models and, importantly in the financial and actuarial literature, on models suited to risk management...

Guaranteed lifetime withdrawal benefits (GLWB) embedded in variable annuities have become an increasingly popular type of life annuity designed to cover sys- tematic mortality risk while providing protection to policyholders from downside investment risk. This paper provides an extensive study...

We apply generalized linear models to evaluate disability transitions for individuals in old age based on a large sample of U.S. elderly. We estimate a multi-state model for long-term care insurance applications, and find significant differences in disability rate patterns and levels from the...

Given the rapid reductions in human mortality observed over recent decades and the uncertainty associated with their future evolution, there have been a large number of mortality projection models proposed by actuaries and demographers in recent years. However, many of these suffer from being...

China and the U.S. are two contrasting countries in terms of functional disability and long-term care. China is experiencing declining family support for long-term care and developing private long-term care insurance. The U.S. has a more developed public aged care system and private long-term...

Modelling mortality and longevity risk is critical to assessing risk for insurers issuing longevity risk products. It has challenged practitioners and academics alike because of first the existence of common stochastic trends and second the unpredictability of an eventual mortality improvement...