Based on the theoretical literature on currency crisis, this paper analyses the heritage of F.H.Cardoso?'s two mandates. Hyper-inflation has been defeated. But recent Asian and Russian crisis have brought about the collapse of the currency peg and a huge depreciation. After a fast recovery, the...

World imports of goods rose by almost 10% in real terms in 2006 under rapid output growth notably in emerging economies. World imports will grow by around 8% in 2007 and 2008 less rapidly in industrial countries (7% per year), than in emerging economies, and first of all China (15% per year)....

This paper analyses the monetary consequences of the Latin-American trade integration process. We consider a sample of five countries –Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Uruguay- spanning the period 1991-2007. The main question raised pertains to the feasibility of a monetary union between...

We propose a measure of the probability of crises associated with an aggregate indicator, where the percentage of false alarms and the proportion of missed signals can be combined to give an appreciation of the vulnerability of an economy. In this perspective, the important issue is not only to...

This paper describes the multisectoral macroeconomic model of a small developing economy in transition, in order to highlight linkages between agriculture and the rest of the economy, and consequences of external opening up. Agriculture is a supply sector, sticky in the short range with market...

This paper presents a small macro-econometric model of Kazakhstan to study the impact of various economic policies. It uses a new approach to test the existence of a level relationship between a dependent variable and a set of regressors, when the characteristics of the regressors’...

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This paper provides evidence of spillover effects from the Indian to the US financial markets. We use VAR and Kalman filter analysis to assess the influence of financial stress indicators like the LIBOR-OIS, CDS, the S&P 500 volatility and the exchange rate of the rupee against the Dollar on two...