An analysis of the use of limited-information estimators as measures of core inflation, showing that these estimators, such as the median of the cross-sectional distribution of inflation, have a higher correlation with past money growth and deliver improved forecasts of future inflation relative...

This paper shows that in several U.S. manufacturing industries, the seasonal variability of production and inventories varies with the state of the business cycle. We present a simple model which implies that if firms reduce the seasonal variability of their production as the economy...

This paper investigates the statistical properties of the U.S. sacrifice ratio -- the cumulative output loss arising from a permanent reduction in inflation. We derive estimates of the sacrifice ratio from three structural VAR models and then conduct Monte Carlo simulations to analyze their...

In the 4 years of its existence, the European Central Bank (ECB) has made significant contributions to the macroeconomic stability of the euro area. This paper takes a critical look at the ECB and compares its institutional structure, policy framework, and operational procedures with those of...

In this article we examine one potential explanation for the cross-country differences in the importance of banks and capital market financing of investment. We provide both an equilibrium model predicting and empirical evidence showing that countries with explicit deposit insurance and a high...