Analysts seeking evidence of rising inflation often focus on the movements of a single indicator_an increase in the price of gold, for example, or a decline in the unemployment rate. But simple statistical tests reveal that such indicators, used in isolation, have very limited predictive power.

Bank for International Settlements researchers Stephen Cecchetti and Piti Disyatat consider the implications of recent financial developments for the “lender-of-last-resort” function of central banks and whether traditional policymaking tools remain effective in the face of modern liquidity...

We study a Lucas asset-pricing model that is standard in all respects, except that the representative agent's subjective beliefs about endowment growth are distorted. Using constant relative risk-aversion (CRRA) utility, with a CRRA coefficient below 10; fluctuating beliefs that exhibit, on...

An investigation of the use of trimmed means as high-frequency estimators of inflation.

Prudential instruments are commonly seen as the tools that can be used to deliver the macroprudential policy goals of reducing the frequency and severity of financial crises. And interest rates are traditionally viewed as the means to deliver the macroeconomic stabilization goals of low, stable...