A simple, robust, quasi-linear, structural general equilibrium rational voting model indicates turnout by voters motivated by the possibility of deciding the outcome is bell-curved in the ex-post winning margin and inversely proportional to electorate size. Applying this model to a large set of...

type="main" xml:id="ecin12085-abs-0001" Analysis of 35 years of previously unstudied survey data shows how the American public evaluates the health of the macroeconomy. Survey responses are multidimensional, distinct from indexes of “consumer sentiment,” and based mostly on genuine...

A number of states passed legislation in the 1990s requiring youths to wear helmets when riding bicycles. The effect of this legislation on bicycling fatalities is examined by subjecting data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System to a panel analysis, using a control-group methodology. A...

Among U.S. drivers involved in fatal accidents, blood alcohol concentration conditional on drinking is static. Thus the dynamics of drunk driving can be described using the fraction of accident-involved drivers who have been drinking (HBD). Changes in this variable imply significant reductions...

"By 1998, all states had passed laws lowering the legal blood alcohol content for drivers under 21 to effectively zero. Theory shows these laws have ambiguous effects on overall fatalities and economic efficiency, and the data show they have little effect on driver behavior. A panel analysis of...

Many public and private entities utilize incentive systems in which improvements in measured performance are rewarded only if the agent crosses some pre-specified threshold. But neither the theory of their incentive effects nor the methods of estimating them has been fully developed. This paper...

The National Minimum Drinking Age Act of 1984 exemplifies high-stakes legislation that attracted the interest of the public, legislators, academics, policy advocates, and executive agencies. This paper explores how these actors combined to generate intellectual support for this act within the...

This paper examines how grade incentives affect student learning across a variety of courses at two universities, using for identification the discrete rewards offered by the standard A–F letter-grade system. We develop and test five predictions about the provision of study effort and the...