We analyze the behavior of plant-level real wages and productivity in Turkish manufacturing after the transition to democracy in 1987 and test whether wages under democracy causes productivity. The Turkish experience provides almost an experimental case: real wages in manufacturing increased by...

This paper investigates the state-level differences in government and community responses to the Covid-19 pandemic, leading to different growth trajectories of Covid-19 cases and their connectedness across the U.S. states. Our regression analysis shows that higher growth trajectories are...

We analyze connectedness between the real and financial sectors of the U.S. economy. Using the weekly ADS index of the Philadelphia FED (the widely used business conditions indicator) to represent the real side, we find that during times of financial distress and/or business cycle turning points...

We analyze the transmission of producer price in inflation shocks across the U.S. manufacturing industries from 1947 to 2018 using the Diebold-Yilmaz Connectedness Index framework, which fully utilizes the information in generalized variance decompositions from vector autoregressions. The...

This paper presents an analysis of the dynamic measures of volatility connectedness of major bank stocks in the US and the EU member countries. The results show that in the early stages of the US financial crisis in 2007 and 2008, the direction of the volatility connectedness was from the US...

Summary We analyze the export decision of Turkish manufacturing plants from 1990 to 2001. In addition to the presence of high sunk costs of entry in export markets, we find support for the hypothesis that the full history of exporting matters for the current export decision. However, the effect...

Richard T. Baillie and Tim Bollerslev (1989) have recently argued that nominal dollar spot exchange rates are cointegrated. Here the authors examine an immediate implication of their finding, namely, that cointegration implies an error-correction representation yielding forecasts superior to...

Price and income elasticities estimated from a country's export demand function are used both to predict and to prescribe effective export strategies. But the focus on elasticities has led to the neglect of an important empirical regularity: a strong persistencein the growth rate of a country's...