Production and milling of sugar cane in Queensland occur in a highly regulated environment. In particular the price of cane is determined by a formula which has been used virtually unchanged for about 70 years. Under this formula, the returns to millers are tied to the price of sugar, not the...

A published version of this paper is available in Economic Papers 6 (2), June 1987, 1-6.

We simulate the effects of a hypothetical H1N1 epidemic in the U.S. using a quarterly CGE model. Quarterly periodicity allows us to capture the short-run nature of an epidemic. We find potentially severe economic effects in the peak quarter. Averaged over the epidemic year the effects are...

Fifty years ago the Norwegian economist, Leif Johansen, gave us what is now recognised as the first CGE model. While Johansen was first, he is not the father of the whole field. CGE modelling in different styles sprang largely independently from several sources. This paper describes how...

In this study, we analysed the terms of trade effects of China's rapid growth on its neighbouring countries using a dynamic global CGE model, the MMC model. We first simulated a "real" or convergence scenario -showing how the economies of China and its neighbours might evolve based on historical...

Computable general equilibrium models can be used to generate detailed forecasts of output growth for commodities/industries. The main objective is to provide realistic baselines from which to calculate the effects of policy changes. In this paper, we assess a CGE forecasting method that has...

Simulations with dynamic, single-country, CGE models typically imply that reductions in domestic demand, e.g. a cut in investment, generate increases in exports and reductions in imports facilitated by real depreciation. However, currently in the U.S. a large reduction in investment is occurring...

We derive formulas for the optimal tariff rate in four theoretical models. We start with a model in which industries are competitive and then successively allow for: monopoly pricing by export industries; revenue-replacement costs; and cold-shower effects. The theoretical formulas accurately...

TERM-H2O is a dynamic, multi-regional computable general equilibrium model of the Australian economy with agricultural detail adapted to include regional water accounts. It focuses on the effects of inter-regional water trading. Factors of production are mobile between sectors in farm...

This paper examines efficient means of abating the greenhouse effect in Australia by reducing the emissions of CO2. It examines the generation of CO2 emissions from fossil fuels in Australia, and analyses means to cut emissions from electricity generation and road transport. Finally, it...