We use supervised learning to identify factors that predict the cross-section of maximum drawdown for stocks in the US equity market. Our data run from January 1965 to December 2019 and our analysis includes ordinary least squares, penalized linear regressions, tree-based models, and neural...

The distinctive financial goals and constraints of ultra-high net worth individuals together with their aggregate growth in assets have led to the emergence of “New Institutional” investing, which includes the best practices from institutional investors but incorporates the critical element...

A long-only investable minimum variance strategy outperformed the S&P 500 over the four decades from January 1973 to December 2012. Through the lens of a factor model, we show that this outperformance can be largely attributed to implicit style bets. Specifically, minimum variance has thrived by...

Maximum drawdown, the largest cumulative loss from peak to trough, is one of the most widely used indicators of risk in the fund management industry, but one of the least developed in the context of measures of risk. We formalize drawdown risk as Conditional Expected Drawdown (CED), which is the...

In this article, the authors measure the impact of estimation error on latent factor model forecasts of portfolio risk and factor exposures. In markets simulated with a Gaussian return generating process, the authors measure errors in forecasts for equally weighted and long-only minimum variance...

A long-only investable minimum variance strategy outperformed the S&P 500 over the four decades from January 1973 to December 2012. Through the lens of a factor model, we show this outperformance can be largely attributed to implicit style bets. Specifically, minimum variance has thrived by...

The cumulative return to a levered strategy is determined by five elements that fit together in a simple, useful formula. A previously undocumented element is the covariance between leverage and excess return to the fully invested source portfolio underlying the strategy. In an empirical study...

An extended history of market returns reveals aspects of financial risk that are not evident over short timescales. The most enduring risk measure is variance, which quantifies short-term regularities in return dispersion. An alternative measure, shortfall, quantifies the risk of extreme market...

The authors extended the standard paradigm for portfolio stress testing in two ways. First, they introduced a toolkit that enables investors to envision and administer extreme scenarios. The risk model is integral to the stress test. They demonstrated the substantial impact of using historical...