Vienna, Forthcoming in Empirica

This autumn's banking panic will take a severe toll on world growth especially in developed economies. GDP growth in the OECD group of mainly rich countries will slow to 0.4 per cent in 2009, the weakest since 1982. Among the G7, the American and British economies will contract next year and the...

presented at MMF Cambridge University conference at Trinity College February 2007 and at an HM Treasury Seminar April 2007

Output growth in the Euro Area has been disappointing since the formation of EMU. This may be the consequence of the new monetary and exchange rate arrangements, but it is necessary to remove the effects of other factors such as the growth of labour input, skills, knowledge and risk premia. This...

The global economic outlook has darkened. World GDP growth will slow this year. Inflation in the OECD countries will rise from 1.9 per cent in 2007 to 2.5 per cent in 2008. Although the US Federal Reserve has slashed its main policy rate, worries about inflation are holding back interest rate...