Rare events (RE) and long-run risks (LRR) are complementary approaches for characterizing macroeconomic variables and for understanding asset pricing. We estimate a model with RE and LRR using long-term consumption data for 42 economies. RE typically associates with major historical episodes,...

Rare events (RE) and long-run risks (LRR) are complementary elements for understanding asset-pricing patterns, including the average equity premium and the volatility of equity returns. We construct a model with RE (temporary and permanent parts) and LRR (including stochastic volatility) and...

The coefficient of relative risk aversion is a key parameter for analyses of behavior toward risk, but good estimates of this parameter do not exist. A promising place for reliable estimation is rare macroeconomic disasters, which have a major influence on the equity premium. The premium depends...

<script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.1/MathJax.js?config=AM_HTMLorMML-full"></script>In the rare-disasters setting, a key determinant of the equity premium is the size distribution of macroeconomic disasters, gauged by proportionate declines in per capita consumption or GDP. The long-term national-accounts data for up to 36 countries provide a large sample of disaster events of...

Rare events (RE) and long-run risks (LRR) are complementary approaches for characterizing macroeconomic variables and understanding asset pricing. We estimate a model with RE and LRR using long-term consumption data for 42 economies, identify these two types of risks simultaneously from the...