The paper describes an inter-country model developed on the New Keynesian Phillips curve principle for the economies of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine. Technically the modelling idea has been grounded within the concept of the infinite dimensional vector autoregressive models by Chudik and Pesaran...

The article deals with the results of econometric model building for Russian and Belorussian economic development using the LAM-3 methodology. LAM-3 is the most recent version of the Long-run Adjustment Model that is used for quarter-to-quarter modeling and forecasting to show the economic...

Empirical evaluation of macroeconomic uncertainties and their use for probabilistic forecasting are investigated. A new weighted skew normal distribution which parameters are interpretable in relation to monetary policy outcomes and actions is proposed. This distribution is fitted to recursively...

The paper introduces a t-ratio type test for detecting bilinearity in a stochastic unit root process. It appears that such process is a realistic approximation for many economic and financial time series. It is shown that, under the null of no bilinearity, the tests statistics are asymptotically...

The paper analyses inflationary real effects in situation where there are frequent episodes of high inflation. It is conjectured with the increase in high inflation, and when differences between the expected and output-neutral inflation become large, output stimulation through inflationary...

Issues related to classification, interpretation and estimation of inflationary uncertainties are addressed in the context of their application for constructing probability forecasts of inflation. It is shown that confusions in defining uncertainties lead to potential misunderstandings of such...

The paper analyses inflationary real effects in situation where there are frequent episodes of high inflation. It is conjectured with the increase in high inflation, and when differences between the expected and output-neutral inflation become large, output stimulation through inflationary...