A class of stochastic unit-root bilinear processes, allowing for GARCH-type effects with asymmetries, is studied. The volatility is not bounded away from zero and is minimum for non zero innovations, which are important differences with the standard GARCH. Necessary and sufficient conditions for...

This paper proposes a new indicator of the expected real effects of an inflation-targeting monetary policy. This indicator can be derived from a simple two-dimensional vector autoregressive model of inflation and the output gap. A simulation experiment illustrates its rationale for timing...