For Albania, we expect GDP growth of 1.9% in 2011 and 2.2% in 2012 respectively and a stronger increase to 2.6% in 2013 and 3.4% in 2014, the latter due to the election cycle and induced populist government spending. The assumption is that the government has no problems financing fiscal...

In Croatia, GDP growth will decline again in 2012 and should finally rebound only in 2013, provided external demand and competitiveness strengthen. The poor situation on the labour market will continue to be a major obstacle to a recovery in household consumption. The burdens associated with...

Given fiscal consolidation and the expected growth slowdown in Slovenia’s most important EU trading partners, GDP will decline by 1% in 2012. A rebound of economic activity is expected only in 2013 since public investment will need time to recover and deleveraging of the enterprise sector is...

The general deterioration of conditions in the euro area (even in Germany) in the second half of 2011 has already affected the performance and prospects in most new member states. But so far Poland has kept its growth momentum. Growth in 2012 is likely to be satisfactory (though of course lower...

The Hungarian economy will slide into recession this year due to the austerity measures required to reduce the fiscal deficit to below 3% of the GDP. Further, but smaller consolidation measures will be necessary in 2013 as well. An agreement with the IMF and the EU may help partially restore...

In Romania, a bumper harvest boosted GDP by 2.5% in 2011, a one-time effect that is due to vanish in 2012. At best 1% growth can be expected, driven by private consumption. A major factor of the economic slowdown is the expected stop in credit expansion. The fiscal situation is not expected to...

The growth of Turkey's economy was over 10% year-on-year in some quarters of the period 2010-2011. It may have decelerated recently, but it is not yet certain that this will lead to a more or less soft type of ‘landing’; a swift resumption of growth is feasible. In 2011, thanks to high real...

The economy of Bosnia and Herzegovina will hardly grow substantially or may even shrink slightly in 2012. For the time being, there is nothing that would support expectations of a strong GDP decline. For the period after 2012 we can count with growth resumption, should external conditions allow...

Should the euro area continue to ‘muddle through’ and thus avoid deep recession in 2012, the Czech economy would escape recession as well. But its growth in 2012 will be depressed by the stubborn attempts to meet the fiscal targets, no matter what. A euro area recovery in 2013 and beyond...

Growth prospects in Macedonia are still somewhere around 2% this year with some acceleration next year and beyond. The main driver is private investment which should recover due to relatively low private debt. The main risk is the possible contagion effect from the Greek crisis. There are still...