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The COVID-19 consumption game-changer : evidence from a large-scale multi-country survey
Hodbod, Alexander; Hommes, Cars H.; Huber, Stefanie J.; … - 2021
Prospective economic developments depend on the behavior of consumer spending. A key question is whether private expenditures recover once social distancing restrictions are lifted or whether the COVID-19 crisis has a sustained impact on consumer confidence, preferences, and, hence, spending....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012643267
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Managing households' expectations with unconventional policies
D'Acunto, Francesco; Hoang, Daniel; Weber, Michael - 2021
unconventional policies that aim to increase households' spending directly through managing their expectations. We first show … theoretically and empirically that higher in ation expectations increase households' consumption. We then design a difference … demand via managing expectations. Whereas unconventional fiscal policy increases households' expectations and spending …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012490917
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Optimal foresight
Chahrour, Ryan; Jurado, Kyle - 2020
Agents have foresight when they receive information about a random process above and beyond the information contained in its current and past history. In this paper, we propose an information-theoretic measure of the quantity of foresight in an information structure, and show how to separate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012606997
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Managing households' expectations with salient economic policies
D'Acunto, Francesco; Hoang, Daniel; Weber, Michael - 2019 - This version: August 2019
substantially. We document this fact by comparing an easy-to-grasp expectations-based policy, unconventional fiscal policy, with a … consumption via managing inflation expectations based on the Euler equation. Unconventional fiscal policy uses trivial … announcements of future consumer-price increases to boost inflation expectations and consumption expenditure on impact. Instead …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012057290
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Home price expectations and spending : evidence from a field experiment
Anand Chopra, Felix; Roth, Christopher; Wohlfart, Johannes - 2023
How do households adjust their spending behavior in response to changes in home price expectations? We conduct a field … experiment with a sample of Americans that links survey data on home price expectations to actual spending behaviour as measured … in a rich home-scanner dataset. In the experiment we exogenously vary households' home price expectations by providing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014284713
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House prices and the distribution of wealth around the great recession
Cóndor, Richard; Moguel, Rodolfo Oviedo - 2023
market using shocks to aggregate income, the distribution of income, credit conditions, and expectations of future housing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014540953
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House prices and the distribution of wealth around the great recession
Cóndor, Richard; Moguel, Rodolfo Oviedo - 2023
market using shocks to aggregate income, the distribution of income, credit conditions, and expectations of future housing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014301444
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Parameter Uncertainty and the Fiscal Multiplier
Murray, Jamie - Treasury, Government of New Zealand - 2013
I present a simple estimated model of the New Zealand economy which is used to assess the sensitivity of the impact multiplier and output losses associated with fiscal consolidations to uncertainty over model parameters. I find that, in normal times, the fiscal multiplier can be expected to lie...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010678041
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fiscal multipliers
Chinn, Menzie - Palgrave Macmillan
The concept of fiscal multipliers is examined in the context of the major theoretical approaches. Differing methods of calculating multipliers are then recounted (structural equations, VAR, simulation). The sensitivity of estimates to conditioning on the state of the economy (slack, financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010684110
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Parameter Uncertainty and the Fiscal Multiplier
Murray, Jamie - 2013
I present a simple estimated model of the New Zealand economy which is used to assess the sensitivity of the impact multiplier and output losses associated with fiscal consolidations to uncertainty over model parameters. I find that, in normal times, the fiscal multiplier can be expected to lie...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012115655